Bitcoin breakout odds rise as negative funding streak mirrors past bottoming regimes, K33 says

QUICK TAKE ■ Persistent negative funding alongside growing open interest and rising bitcoin prices is increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze, according to K33. ■ The bitcoin 30-day average funding rate has been negative for 46 consecutive days, matching the duration of the 2022 bear market bottom, Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted.

While defensive positioning has become a recurring theme in the bitcoin market, continued negative funding paired with growing open interest and rising prices point to elevated aggression from bears, according to research and brokerage firm K33, increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze ahead.

The 30-day average bitcoin derivatives funding rate has now been negative for 46 consecutive days, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted in a new report, matching the duration of the negative funding regime seen around the late 2022 bear market bottom.

"With recent funding rate compression and the unusually persistent negative regime, we see increasing odds of higher highs and a breakout from BTC's 68-day consolidation," Lunde said.

Periods where notional open interest trends higher, bitcoin prices rise, and daily, seven-day, and 30-day average funding rates remain negative have persistently appeared near consolidation bottoms, Lunde noted.

"Current crypto-native positioning aligns with such conditions, which is why we have emphasized funding rate regimes in our reports over the past month and why we maintain our bullish BTC outlook," he said.

Only March to May 2020 (63 days) and June to August 2021 (49 days) have presented longer continuous durations of negative 30-day funding rates, according to K33's analysis.

Bitcoin is up 3% over the past week and 23% since hitting a low of around $60,000 on Feb. 6, according to The Block's BTC price page. However, it remains down around 41% from an all-time high of roughly $126,000 set on Oct. 6, 2025.