Bitcoin Nears $75K As Risk-on Sentiment, Geopolitical Landscape Improves
Bitcoin’s sustained uptrend over the past few weeks comes amid an improving risk-on sentiment across broader markets. The leading crypto is trading at around $74,420, up 5.2% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. The S&P 500 index closed Monday with a 1% gain, marking its highest daily close since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
Bitcoin is up around 13% since February 28, underscoring the asset’s safe-haven behavior during times of crisis. The S&P 500 is up 7% while gold is down around 9% in this period. Its performance reflects improving risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by easing bearish positioning in the options market.
It is also a result of the “de-escalation signals in US-Iran/Middle East tensions,” Andri Fauzan Adziima, a researcher at Decrypt, noting that “easing oil spikes and risk-off pressure, combined with a softer core CPI print and robust labor data, are bolstering confidence in a potential Fed pivot.”
The uptrend comes as Iran and the US agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire on April 8. However, the situation remains fragile, with U.S. blockades of Iranian ports and the potential for new sanctions still on the table.
Bitcoin’s outlook shows considerable improvement, especially in the options market, amid a relatively stable geopolitical climate. The 25-delta skew, which measures the bearish positioning and sentiment, has improved from -10% to 5% in the last 24 hours, according to Deribit data. During a downtrend, if the skew continues to decline, it indicates that investors are paying more for put options than call options. However, the improvement in skew indicates that investors have reduced their bearish exposure, suggesting a shift toward a bullish outlook.
“Despite this, a decline in the Volatility Spread implies continued cautious sentiment,” Glassnode noted.
The recent uptick in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF netflow suggests that “traditional finance participants continue to show strong demand for Bitcoin as a portfolio stabilizer,” particularly after Monday’s $786 million inflow.
Bitcoin’s recent move toward $75,000 is primarily spot-driven, Adziima noted, suggesting that strong buying from investors is keeping prices stable. If the leading crypto manages to hold above $75,000, “it could open the path toward $80,000,” particularly if spot demand continues to outweigh leverage-driven liquidations.
However, sticky inflation, restrictive Federal Reserve policies, and deterioration in global risk sentiment could potentially stall Bitcoin's ascent. Despite the bullishness, users on prediction market Myriad have assigned a 4.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates by more than 25 basis points before July, indicating that investors remain wary. Although crude oil fell below $100 per barrel, Myriad users still believe its next move could push it past the $120 mark, assigning a 75% chance to this outcome.
