'Nothing Ever Happens': This Bot Always Bets 'No' on Polymarket, And It Has a Point
Someone built a prediction market bot with a philosophy borrowed from the most cynical person at every dinner table—the one who always argues “nothing ever happens.” The bot, created by engineer Sterling Crispin, automatically buys “No” on every non-sports market on Polymarket it finds and holds to resolution. The entire trading strategy fits in one simple observation.
Turns out, that might actually be enough to make your bags grow—kinda. The premise rests on a number Polymarket publishes openly: 73.3% of all resolved markets on the platform end in “No.” Crispin announced the bot on X earlier this week, a post that collected 3.1 million views. Polymarket's own accuracy page confirms the data, explaining that the majority of markets resolve to "No" because most questions are framed as "Will [Event X] happen?"
The observation cuts to something real about how prediction markets are built. Most questions on Polymarket revolve around a specific event happening within a timeframe—will a token hit a price, will a celebrity tweet, will a law pass. If the event doesn't happen, "No" wins.
The effect is amplified in longer-running markets. An analysis of over 2,300 closed Polymarket positions shows that "No" remains a dominant outcome. The longer a market stays open, the more time the world has to simply do nothing.
The bot is not, as some dismissive replies on Crispin's post assumed, just spraying capital at random. It uses a 65-cent price cap to filter out markets where the "No" position is already too expensive. Polymarket’s markets—often involving its parent company Dastan—resolve to $1, with users buying shares in a “yes” or “no” position at less than a dollar.
That price cap does real work. Buying “No” at $0.40 only requires a 42% win rate to break even after fees, and with a 73% historical base rate for "No" outcomes, the math starts to look favorable. The default 2% position sizing is a conservative default, not a limit—the bot allows any sizing up to the user's risk tolerance.
Prediction markets have grown into a $63.5 billion-a-year industry, according to a 2026 CertiK report, and Polymarket was valued at $9 billion after NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange invested $2 billion in October 2025. Markets of that size attract sophisticated players.
The platform's top earners don't bet “No” on everything. Polymarket's all-time leaderboard shows that the most successful users are often sports bettors with deep domain expertise, rather than systematic "No" bettors.
The statistical edge Crispin identified is real. But turning it into a fortune requires more than a simple script. The bot's edge comes from filtering for markets where “No” is priced below its true probability and managing liquidity in a way that doesn't move the market against the bot's own positions.
The bot's GitHub repository is public, licensed CC0, and includes a live dashboard, a Heroku deployment guide, and a script designed to be easy to run for anyone with a Polymarket API key.
