'Sports is the entry point, not the endgame': Bernstein projects prediction market sector to reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030

As prediction markets evolve into broader information markets across sports, economics, politics, and daily events, analysts at Bernstein project the sector's annual volume will reach $1 trillion by 2030.

Prediction markets generated around $51 billion in volume during 2025, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani noted in a report on Tuesday. Despite state-level scrutiny in recent months, particularly surrounding sports event contracts, the analysts expect prediction market volumes to scale as the industry expands.

Kalshi and Polymarket have already executed a combined $60 billion in volume so far this year, with Polymarket's monthly volume hitting an all-time high of $14.7 billion in March 2026.

Sports contracts currently dominate prediction market volumes at a 62% share, benefiting from the sector's high-frequency nature. However, the analysts expect sports' share of total volumes to moderate to around 31% by the end of the decade as other categories such as economics, entertainment, and corporate outcomes gain traction.

The analysts also projected prediction markets to expand from $400 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in 2025 to $12 billion by 2030. Polymarket recently moved away from its zero-fee model and is now operating at an ARR of $420 million.

Robinhood and Coinbase have both emerged as key distribution layers for prediction markets, the analysts noted, particularly following Robinhood's acquisition of a prediction market platform last year and its subsequent integration. Bernstein's projected prediction market growth, alongside a continued crypto bull market, leads them to expect Robinhood to outperform.

Bernstein rates Robinhood and Coinbase as outperform, with $130 and $330 price targets, implying around 81% and 89% in respective upside for the stocks.